Daily Fantasy Golf Advice – WGC HSBC Champions

The Asian “Money Grab” swing comes to a close this week. The third and final event in Asia is the WGC-HSBC Champions. Like last week this is a limited-field/no-cut event with just 78 players participating. We are certainly coming off an historical week that saw the first ever PGA TOUR sanctioned event played in Japan and Tiger Woods winning #82 to tie Sam Snead. Unfortunately, #83 will have to wait as The Big Cat is not in this week’s field.

The HSBC will be contested at Shenshan International GC (west) as it has in 13 of the last 14 editions (2012, Mission Hills). Shenshan is a par 72 playing at 7,261 yards. As always, par 72, par 5 scoring average is a key stat. The par 3s are also very challenging and those two stats take care of 8 of the 18 holes. This is also the third straight week they’ll be on bent grass greens, so look for putters to heat up a bit.

Until further notice or any special requests we will continue with one post for daily fantasy golf advice. When referring to player salary, the first dollar amount is DraftKings and the second is FanDuel.

***All statistics referenced are as of the end of the 2018-2019 season for both The PGA TOUR and The Korn Ferry Tour.

Key Statistics

These statistics are key to success at Shenshan GC:

  • Par 5 Scoring Average (Par 5 Sco)
  • Par 3 Scoring Average (Par 3 Sco)
  • Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (SGT)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (SGP)

Horses For The Course

  • Justin Rose ($10,500/$11,200) – The 2017 champ finished 3rd in his title defense last year and also has solo 5th in 2013. Rosey has posted two top 15s on the Euro Tour since the end of the FedExCup Playoffs. Ranked 13th in SGT and 17th in SGP.
  • Henrik Stenson ($9,800/$10,800) – Last two trips to Shenshan have both resulted in T2s. Great course fit for the 3 wood master. Ranked 20th in SGT. Wouldn’t think too much of the missed cut in Houston, he’s hitting the ball just fine.
  • Phil Mickelson($7,400/$8,500) – We know, recent form is abysmal. It’s still very difficult to dismiss the only two time champion of this event not matter how long ago it was. Also has a T2 sprinkled in there. It is Phil and things could click any given week, especially in comfortable surroundings.

Top Tier Picks

  • Patrick Reed ($9,600/$10,700) – P Reed has the machine humming right now. His T7 at the ZOZO was his 11th top 25 in his last 12 worldwide starts. Also finished T7 at the HSBC in 2015 and 2018. His Sagarin Ranking of 19th bodes well for strong field like this and shows he has a winning record vs. the top 50 in the OWGR.
  • Sungjae Im ($9,500/$10,500) – Expectations at the CJ Cup in his home country may have been a bit exaggerated. Bounced back nicely with a T3 at the ZOZO. Ranked 6th in Par 5 Sco and 17th in SGT. There is a lot of value here.
  • Adam Scott ($9,300/$10,600) – Seems to the player that is undervalued week to week. Probably because he has zero top 10s so far this season, but they have all been top 20s. Has three top 20s in last five HSBC Champions. Ranked 2nd in Par 5 Sco and 3rd in SGT.

Other Options: Hideki Matsuyama ($11,100/$11,400), Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900/$10,900), Tony Finau ($9,700/$11,000)

Mid Tier Picks

  • Matt Wallace ($8,700/$9,600) – Wallace is making his debut as on official PGA TOUR member. He’s poised to go to the next level and a proven champion on the Euro Tour. His last five starts have resulted in three top-10s and a T15.
  • Corey Conners ($8,200/$9,300) – The big Canadian is showing no signs of being bothered by the big stage and bright lights. Comes to his Shenshan debut on a T13-T12-T6 run with six top-5s in his last eight starts. Ranked 20th in Par 3 Sco and his ball-striking continues to be sublime.
  • Ian Poulter ($7,700/$9,000) – He’s gone T6-T30-21st in his last three starts in this event. Personal best solo 2nd came in 2013. His record in limited-field/no-cut events is very good. He’s opened the Asian swing with a pair of top-20s taking his total to 14 top-20s worldwide in 2019. Ranked 12th in Par 5 Sco.

Other Options: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,600/$9,500), Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($8,500/$9,400), Charles Howell III ($7,900/$9,000)

Value Tier Picks

  • Adam Hadwin ($7,500/$8,800) – Got off to a hot start with a 2nd a 4th in his first two events. Had a blip last week with a 41st, but we see that as opportunity. His value dropped a good bit so we like taking a look here. He finished 30th at Shenshan last year and we like an improvement on that this week.
  • Kevin Kisner ($7,200/$8,300) – Kis needs to make a charge if he wants a captain’s pick for the US President’s Cup team. He’s really good on long par 3s and every one on this course is over 200 yards. Also, a superb putter, particularly on bent grass greens. Ranked 20th in SGP and $7,200/$8,300 is great value.
  • Xinjun Zhang ($6,900/$8,000) – Zhang enters in excellent form. The Korn Ferry Tour grad has posted a 7th, 16th and 4th in his last three PGA TOUR starts. Finished 2nd in Par 3 Sco and 8th in Putting Average on the KFT last season. He does have experience here as he has played in this event the last four seasons.

Other Options: Keegan Bradley ($7,000/$8,600), J.T. Poston ($6,700/$7,900), Mike Lorenzo-Vera ($6,600/$7,900)

Super Sleepers

These aren’t just value picks, these are guys that could make a run and finish high on the leader board.

  • Jordan Spieth ($9,400/$10,400)
  • Bernd Wiesberger ($9,200/$9,700)
  • Billy Horschel ($8,900/$10,200)
  • Robert Macintyre ($7,300/$8,400)

The Golf Geek’s Picks

DraftKings

FanDuel

Every week you can visit here and get daily fantasy golf advice. I will also share my lineups for each week. Follow along or as always, throw comment below on your picks, teams, advice or strategy.

The Doctor Is Out…

Doc Mulligan

docmulligan@mygolfgeek.com

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