After a deserved week off, the boys are back at it this week in Mexico. I’m sure there will be plenty of caddies gate talk stemming from defending champion Matt Kuchar’s awful cheapness when compensating his caddie. I think Kuch might throw some extra tips around this week. The other cool story line is Chris Kirk’s return to the PGA TOUR after taking some time away while battling alcohol abuse.
The Mayakoba will be played, as always, at El Cameleon Golf Club. This is the 13th edition of the first ever PGA TOUR event to be hosted in Mexico. El Cameleon is a short 6,987 yard, par 71 track. This course routinely ranks as one of the easiest on TOUR with winning scores consistently better than 20 under par. Gotta make birdies…and eagles, El Cameleon recorded the 12th most eagles made on TOUR last year.
Gonna have to hit fairways and greens to take advantage of all the scoring opportunities.
Until further notice or any special requests we will continue with one post for daily fantasy golf advice. When referring to player salary, the first dollar amount is DraftKings and the second is FanDuel.
***All statistics referenced are as of the end of the 2018-2019 season for both The PGA TOUR and The Korn Ferry Tour.
These statistics are key to success at El Cameleon GC
- Strokes Gained: Approach The Green (SGAPG)
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (SGT)
- Par 5 Scoring Average (Par 5 Sco)
- Birdie or Better Percentage (Bir or Bet)
Horses For The Course
- Russell Knox ($9,300/$10,800) – Has made the cut in every edition since 2012. Posted solo 2nd, solo 3rd and T9 in his last three starts at El Chameleon. Also has 16 straight rounds under par at this venue. Ranked 18th in SGAPG.
- Brian Gay ($7,900/$9,400) – His break through win came at El Chameleon in 2008. Is 9-9 in cuts made since, with four top-25s. Has three top-25s already in the 2019-20 season including a T3 two weeks ago in Bermuda.
- Scott Piercy ($7,600/$9,500) – El Cameleon can be just what the doctor ordered for some recent woes after a pretty hot start to the fall. Since 2015, Piercy has finished T16, T4, T6 respectively and closed last year with a field low 62 on Sunday. Scoring average at El Chameleon over that stretch is 67.33.
Top Tier Picks
- Tony Finau ($10,600/$11,500) – Can he use a boost from his President’s Cup captain’s pick to contend? I say yes, I mean this guy is way too consistent not to win again and this seems like the perfect place. Placed T7 in 2014 and T16 in 2018. Ranked 17th in Par 5 Sco.
- Billy Horschel ($10,200/$11,300) – Really consistent form upon arrival at Mayakoba. Four top-10s and two top-25s in his last eight starts. Continues to hang around the top 20 (22nd) in the Sagarin Rankings, that means he can compete with everyone and this field isn’t exactly star-studded.
- Charles Howell III ($9,600/$11,000) – This guy just keeps cashing checks. Off to another hot start to 2019-20 with two top-10s and another top-20 in his five starts. Three career top-10s and four more top-20s at Mayakoba. Continues to be an elite ball-striker.
Other Options: Viktor Hovland ($11,200/$11,700), Joaquin Niemann ($9,800/$11,200), Scottie Scheffler ($9,100/$10,700)
Mid Tier Picks
- Keegan Bradley ($8,600/$10,400) – Has been simmering for quite some time now. Has T8 (2015) and T15 (2016) finishes at El Chameleon. Had a solid Asian swing with a T13 in Japan and T24 in China. Ranked 19th in SGAPG.
- Denny McCarthy ($8,400/$10,100) – Continues to raise his tee to green game while maintaining is exquisite putting. Since Sanderson in the early fall he has gone T18-T9-T9-T15. Ranked 10th in Par 5 Sco and 13th in Bir or Bet. This guy will grab a win this season, no reason it can’t be this week on a short track.
- Danny Lee ($8,300/$9,800) – Last year’s runner-up comes in off a solo 2nd in his home country of Korea and a T-10 in Japan. This is a very appealing pick at the price point. His 73.8 FPPG in DraftKings is well above the average for the price range.
Other Options: Chez Reavie ($8,500/$10,000), Pat Perez ($8,100/$9,600), Harris English ($8,000/$9,900)
Value Tier Picks
- Brian Harman ($7,700/$9,500) – When the track is sub 7,000 you have to take a look at BH. Nothing jumps off the page statistically but his ball striking numbers have been consistently on the rise. The lefty is gritty and hits a ton of fairways.
- Xinjun Zhang ($7,300/$8,900) – Comes in with two top-10s and another top-20 already in the fall. As long as he continues to be valued this low his a good play in any DFS lineup.
- Austin Cook ($6,700/$8,400) – Really solid track record on shorter courses. Hits a ton of fairways and greens and that bodes well at El Chameleon. Ranked 46th in Bir or Bet, which for someone priced under $7k is really solid. Forget current form, this is a week that usually plays out different than you think.
Other Options: Graeme McDowell ($7,800/$9,700), Beau Hossler ($7,600/$9,200), Bronson Burgoon ($7,400/$9,000)
These aren’t just value picks, these are guys that could make a run and finish high on the leader board.
- Abraham Ancer ($9,200/$10,900)
- J.T. Poston ($8,200/$9,800)
- Harold Varner III ($7,900/$9,700)
- Adam Long ($6,600/$8,500)
- Rafael Campos ($6,100/$7,300)
The Golf Geek’s Picks
Every week you can visit here and get daily fantasy golf advice. I will also share my lineups for each week. Follow along or as always, throw comment below on your picks, teams, advice or strategy.
The Doctor Is Out…