The penultimate even of the 2018-2019 PGA TOUR season is upon us. The field has been cut from 125 to 70 players for the BMW Championship conducted by the Western Golf Association. The tournament will be played on Medinah Country Club’s No. 3 course in the Chicago suburb of Medinah, IL.
Medinah has some very rich history. They have hosted three US Opens, two PGA Championships and the 2012 Ryder Cup famous for the “Miracle at Medinah”, the epic European comeback from a 10-6 deficit going into Sunday’s singles.
The course will be played as a par 72 stretching to a long 7,657 yards. Success on par 5s is a must when you play 16 of them over the course of the week and at that length, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee will be critical.
We are switching gears slightly this week and just doing one post for daily fantasy golf advice. When referring to player salary, the first dollar amount is DraftKings and the second is FanDuel.
These statistics are key to success at Medinah C.C. No. 3
- Strokes Gained: Approach The Green (SGAPG)
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (SGT)
- Par 5 Scoring Average (Par 5 Sco)
- Proximity Of Approach 150-175 yards (App 150-175)
Horses For The Course
- Tiger Woods ($8,000/$10,200) – I know, I know, more questions than answers but this is “Horses For The Course” and we don’t have much data to go on with limited play at Medinah. He won both PGA Championships contested at Medinah in 1999 and 2006. He plays well when he’s comfortable but obvious risk is his health.
- Ian Poulter ($8,000/$9,300) – Nothing but good memories for the 2012 Ryder Cup hero at Medinah. Went 4-0-0 in those matches. Jumped from 60th in the FedExCup Standings to 43rd after last week so his hopes for Atlanta are still alive.
- Keegan Bradley ($6,800/$7,700) – Recent form not withstanding he is the BMW defending champ, different venue, but good vibes can’t hurt. Posted 3-1-0 record at the 2012 Ryder Cup and he was electric doing it.
Top Tier Picks
- Jon Rahm ($10,900/$11,800) – Current form and past playoff success is
just too good to ignore. Talk about being dialed. No worse than T11 with a win in his last six worldwide starts and six top 11s or better in nine playoff starts. Ranks 7th in SGT, needs that at this big hitter’s ballpark.
- Justin Thomas ($10,000/$11,500) – Really nice value here as he seems to be flying under the radar. T9-T11-T12-T12 in his last four starts. Not great but really consistent. Ranks no worse than 12th in any of the four key stats (1st in Par 5 Sco). He should follow the blueprint of “trending” this week (i.e. Patrick Reed)
- Webb Simpson ($9,400/$11,100) – The word of warning here is that he’ll probably be a heavy play. Having a phenomenal year despite no wins. T18 last week at Liberty National followed two solo 2nds added to his 13 top 25 finishes this year. Ranks 10th, 5th and 18th respectively in SGAPG, SGT and Par 5 Sco.
Other Options: Rory McIlroy ($11,500/$12,100), Patrick Cantlay ($9,800/$11,200), Adam Scott ($9,200/$10,900)
Mid Tier Picks
- Paul Casey ($8,400/$10,000) – Comes in well rested having skipped The Norther Trust. Seven worldwide top 10s this year including his win at The Vaslpar Championship. Ranks no worse than 15th in any of the key statistics and with a stacked field his salary is probably lower than it should be.
- Billy Horschel ($8,300/$9,600) – The FEC Playoff dynamo comes in off of four straight top 25s in non-majors including two top 10s. Really, really solid Sagarin Ranking of 19 that includes a winning record against the OWGR Top 50.
- Hideki Matsuyama ($8,200/$9,900) – Ride or die to the end with my boy here. Ranks no worse than 18th in any of the key stat categories. At this salary, any guy who has made 20 of 22 cuts this season is worth your attention. At 33rd in the FEC Standings he knows he needs a good week to advance.
Other Options: Louis Oosthuizen ($8,700/$10,400), Tony Finau ($8,500/$10,300), Brandt Snedeker ($8,100/$9,200)
Value Tier Picks
- Jason Kokrak ($7,800/$9,100) – The bomber ranks 6th in SGAPG and 18th SGT. Has made 20 of 21 cuts this year. Comes in off T6 and T12 finishes respectively. Comes in sitting 32nd in FEC Standings. A solid tournament gets him to Atlanta for The TOUR Championship.
- Sungjae Im ($7,200/$8,200) – I say every week that this rookie is overlooked and he certainly is. Ranked 26th in the FEC Standings he is well ahead of all the more glamorous rookies and will probably be the only one to make it to The TOUR Championship. Ranks 19th in SGT and 7th in Par 5 Sco.
- Corey Conners ($6,600/$7,700) – Is proving week after week that he is a value pick to pay attention to. Comes in off two straight top 25s and ranks 13th in SGAPG. His ball striking cannot be argued with. If the putter ever gets hot he is more than capable of contending.
Other Options: Abraham Ancer ($7,700/$8,700), Marc Leishman ($7,500/$8,400), Troy Merritt ($6,800/$7,300)
These aren’t just value picks, these are guys that could make a run and finish high on the leader board.
- Jordan Spieth ($8,900/$10,600)
- Jason Day ($8,100/$9,800)
- Joaquin Niemann ($7,300/$8,700)
The Golf Geek’s Picks
Every week you can visit here and get daily fantasy golf advice. I will also share my lineups for each week. Follow along or as always, throw comment below on your picks, teams, advice or strategy.
The Doctor Is Out…